This story was updated at 11:05 a.m. EDT.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - NASA's brand-new rocket, the vehicle
planned to launch astronauts spaceward after the space shuttles are retired, is
poised to make its first-ever test flight Tuesday.
The experimental Ares
I-X rocket is set to lift off at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT) from Pad 39B here at
Kennedy Space Center. NASA needs good weather in order to gather detailed data
on how the $445 million booster performs during this maiden voyage. Unfortunately,
weather officer Kathy Winters has predicted a grim 60 percent chance of clouds
thwarting a launch attempt Tuesday.
"The weather is a little bit of a concern
tomorrow," Winters said Monday.
Ares I-X is
a trial version of the Ares I rocket, planned under NASA's Constellation
program to ferry astronauts to low-Earth orbit aboard an Orion spacecraft. The
test rocket includes a real solid-rocket first stage, with a mock second stage
and dummy Orion crew capsule on top to simulate the intended weight and size of
Ares I. Ares I-X is the
tallest booster in service or about to fly and stands about 327 feet (100
meters) high — 14 stories taller than NASA's space shuttles.
The test flight comes at an uncertain time for NASA. The
agency's plans to use the Ares I rocket and Orion capsules to replace the
shuttle fleet and return astronauts to the moon by 2020 are under review by
President Barack Obama's administration. Last week, a report from an
independent panel appointed by the White House suggested that NASA consider
scrapping the Ares I rocket in lieu of commercial rockets that could be ready
sooner.
Despite the uncertainty, NASA officials said they stand
behind the flight test, which should be useful not just for designing Ares I
but also for other future rockets.
"Much of that kind of learning will be applicable to
any large-scale launch system," said Jeff Hanley, program manager for
NASA's Constellation program, which encompasses Ares I and Orion.
NASA hopes to have the Ares I and Orion vehicles in service
by 2015, but the White House panel said that date would likely slip to 2017.
Untried rocket
As an untried rocket, the flight does carry
some risk, mission managers said.
"We're not going to guarantee this is going to
work," said Steve Davis, Ares I-X deputy mission manager. "This is a
flight test. We have very high confidence it's going to work but there's some
areas we're testing for the first time, and that's why we're doing the
test."
If the rocket were to fly sharply off-course and threatened
to pose any danger to the public, an explosive mechanism onboard called the
range safety system could be initiated to destroy the booster.
"[We'll] make sure that were providing safety to the
public," said Ed Mango, Ares I-X launch director. "There's no chance
that this vehicle is going to go anywhere where the range can't take care of
anything it needs to."
Also adding to the potential hazard of the flight is the
fact that the space shuttle Atlantis is currently poised atop its Launch Pad
39A, a mere 1.6 miles (2.5 km) away. If Ares I-X were to explode, the nearby
space shuttle could be in jeopardy. However, because of the trajectory planned
for the rocket, as well as the high level of confidence that it will work
generally as planned, NASA has estimated a slim 1-in-10,000 chance of
catastrophic damage to Atlantis - a danger level the agency is willing to
accept.
Gloomy skies
In fact, mission managers say their biggest fear now is
the weather. When asked if any issues were keeping him up at night in
advance of the flight, Ares I-X mission manager Bob Ess replied "mostly
the weather."
Because this is the first launch of its kind, and a major
goal is to photograph and videotape the rocket's performance, NASA requires
pristine skies and clear visibility to loft the booster. Furthermore, the
launch is constrained by the risk of a phenomenon called
"triboelectrification," which could occur when the rocket passes
through clouds and triggers static electricity that might interfere with the
instruments onboard. This is not a concern with space shuttle launches, which
have been proven immune to this occurrence.
Ares I-X has a four-hour launch window, from 8 a.m. to noon
EDT (1200 to 1600 GMT), and it only needs about 10 minutes of clear skies
within that time to launch. If the rocket cannot blast off on Tuesday, NASA can
try again during the same window on Wednesday, when weather conditions are
expected to improve.
NASA will begin counting down toward the
planned liftoff at 1 a.m. EDT Tuesday, with a live television broadcast to
begin at 5 a.m.
Ready to go
Despite the inherent uncertainty in Ares I-X's flight,
mission managers said they are as confident as possible.
"We're in great shape, the vehicle's ready to go, and
certainly all of us are really excited about Tuesday's launch," said NASA
test director Jeff Spaulding during a Sunday briefing.
The rocket is slated to launch skyward, but stop short of
reaching orbit, before falling back down to Earth. The entire mission is
planned to last just over two minutes.
During that time over 700 sensors onboard will feed back
meticulous measurements of the rocket's path and performance, while cameras on
the ground and aboard airborne planes will take photographs to chart its
trajectory.
"Our purpose is to validate the design and gain
practical experience with the vehicle," Davis said. "The goal of the
test is to get information, it's all about learning. The only failure on this
flight is a failure to learn from it."
SPACE.com will provide full coverage of NASA's Ares I-X
test flight with Staff Writer Clara Moskowitz in Cape Canaveral, Fla., and
Managing Editor Tariq Malik in New York. Click
here for live launch coverage and mission coverage. Live updates begin
Tuesday at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT).
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